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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or merely the greatest shock.

But the current competition is profoundly unique. The group of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime also-rans improving collectively. In an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a typical campaign!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

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