A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
